Aeronautical Decision-Making

Risk Risk Assessment Matrix During each flight, the single pilot makes many decisions Severity under hazardous conditions. To fly safely, the pilot needs Likelihood Catastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible to assess the degree of risk and determine the best course of Probable High High Serious action to mitigate the risk. Occasional High Serious Assessing Risk Remote Serious Medium Low For the single pilot, assessing risk is not as simple as it sounds. For example, the pilot acts as his or her own quality control Improbable in making decisions. If a fatigued pilot who has flown 16 hours is asked if he or she is too tired to continue flying, the Figure 2-5. This risk matrix can be used for almost any operation answer may be “no.” Most pilots are goal oriented and when by assigning likelihood and consequence. In the case presented, asked to accept a flight, there is a tendency to deny personal the pilot assigned a likelihood of occasional and the severity as limitations while adding weight to issues not germane to the catastrophic. As one can see, this falls in the high risk area. mission. For example, pilots of helicopter emergency services (EMS) have been known (more than other groups) to make cause the pilot to assign “occasional” to determine the flight decisions that add significant weight to the patient’s probability of encountering IMC. welfare. These pilots add weight to intangible factors (the patient in this case) and fail to appropriately quantify actual The following are guidelines for making assignments. hazards, such as fatigue or weather, when making flight decisions. The single pilot who has no other crew member • Probable—an event will occur several times for consultation must wrestle with the intangible factors that • Occasional—an event will probably occur sometime draw one into a hazardous position. Therefore, he or she has • Remote—an event is unlikely to occur, but is possible a greater vulnerability than a full crew. • Improbable—an event is highly unlikely to occur Examining National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports and other accident research can help a pilot learn to Severity of an Event assess risk more effectively. For example, the accident rate The next element is the severity or consequence of a pilot’s during night visual flight rules (VFR) decreases by nearly action(s). It can relate to injury and/or damage. If the 50 percent once a pilot obtains 100 hours and continues to individual in the example above is not an instrument rated decrease until the 1,000 hour level. The data suggest that for pilot, what are the consequences of him or her encountering the first 500 hours, pilots flying VFR at night might want to inadvertent IMC conditions? In this case, because the pilot establish higher personal limitations than are required by the is not IFR rated, the consequences are catastrophic. The regulations and, if applicable, apply instrument flying skills following are guidelines for this assignment. in this environment. • Catastrophic—results in fatalities, total loss Several risk assessment models are available to assist in the • Critical—severe injury, major damage process of assessing risk. The models, all taking slightly • Marginal—minor injury, minor damage different approaches, seek a common goal of assessing risk • Negligible—less than minor injury, less than minor in an objective manner. The most basic tool is the risk matrix. system damage [Figure 2-5] It assesses two items: the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequence of that event. Simply connecting the two factors as shown in Figure 2-5 indicates the risk is high and the pilot must either not fly or Likelihood of an Event fly only after finding ways to mitigate, eliminate, or control Likelihood is nothing more than taking a situation and the risk. determining the probability of its occurrence. It is rated as probable, occasional, remote, or improbable. For example, a Although the matrix in Figure 2-5 provides a general viewpoint pilot is flying from point A to point B (50 miles) in marginal of a generic situation, a more comprehensive program can be visual flight rules (MVFR) conditions. The likelihood of made that is tailored to a pilot’s flying. [Figure 2-6] This encountering potential instrument meteorological conditions program includes a wide array of aviation-related activities (IMC) is the first question the pilot needs to answer. The specific to the pilot and assesses health, fatigue, weather, experiences of other pilots, coupled with the forecast, might 2-6