Aeronautical Decision-Making

list hazards associated with all aspects of the flight: Pilot, Alternatives—delay until morning; reschedule Aircraft, enVironment, and External pressures, which makes meeting; drive up the PAVE checklist. [Figure 2-11] For each element, Reality —dangers and distractions of fatigue could ask “what could hurt me, my passengers, or my aircraft?” lead to an accident All four elements combine and interact to create a unique External pressures—business meeting at destination situation for any flight. Pay special attention to the pilot- might influence me aircraft combination, and consider whether the combined “pilot-aircraft team” is capable of the mission you want to fly. A good rule of thumb for the processing phase: if you find For example, you may be a very experienced and proficient yourself saying that it will “probably” be okay, it is definitely pilot, but your weather flying ability is still limited if you time for a solid reality check. If you are worried about missing are flying a 1970s-model aircraft with no weather avoidance a meeting, be realistic about how that pressure will affect gear. On the other hand, you may have a new technically not just your initial go/no-go decision, but also your inflight advanced aircraft with moving map GPS, weather datalink, decisions to continue the flight or divert. and autopilot—but if you do not have much weather flying experience or practice in using this kind of equipment, you TEAM Checklist: Choose and Implement Risk cannot rely on the airplane’s capability to compensate for your own lack of experience. Controls Once you have perceived a hazard (step one) and processed CARE Checklist: Review Hazards and Evaluate Risks its impact on flight safety (step two), it is time to move to the third step, perform. Perform risk management by using the In the second step, the goal is to process this information to determine whether the identified hazards constitute risk, which TEAM checklist of: Transfer, Eliminate, Accept, Mitigate to deal with each factor. [Figure 2-13] is defined as the future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or eliminated. The degree of risk posed by a given hazard Transfer—Should this risk decision be transferred to can be measured in terms of exposure (number of people or someone else (e.g., do you need to consult the chief resources affected), severity (extent of possible loss), and flight instructor?) probability (the likelihood that a hazard will cause a loss). The Eliminate—Is there a way to eliminate the hazard? goal is to evaluate their impact on the safety of your flight, and consider “why must I CARE about these circumstances?” Accept—Do the benefits of accepting risk outweigh the costs? For each hazard that you perceived in step one, process by Mitigate—What can you do to mitigate the risk? using the CARE checklist of: Consequences, Alternatives, Reality, External factors. [Figure 2-12] For example, let's The goal is to perform by taking action to eliminate hazards evaluate a night flight to attend a business meeting: or mitigate risk, and then continuously evaluate the outcome Consequences—departing after a full workday creates of this action. With the example of low ceilings at destination, fatigue and pressure for instance, the pilot can perform good ADM by selecting a suitable alternate, knowing where to find good weather, Pilots can perceive hazards by using the PAVE checklist: EnVironment Departure and destination airports have long runways. Weather is the main hazard. Although it is VFR, it is a typical summer day in the Mid-Atlantic region: hot (near 90 °F) hazy Pilot (visibility 7 miles), and humid with a density altitude of 2,500 Gayle is a healthy and well-rested private pilot with feet. Weather at the destination airport (located in the approximately 300 hours total flight time. Hazards include her mountains) is still IMC but forecast to improve to visual lack of overall and cross-country experience and the fact that meteorological conditions (VMC) prior to her arrival. En route she has not flown at all in 2 months. weather is VMC, but there is an AIRMET Sierra for pockets of IMC over mountain ridges along the proposed route of flight. Aircraft Although it does not have a panel-mount GPS or weather External pressures avoidance gear, the aircraft—a C182 Skylane with long-range Gayle is making the trip to spend a weekend with relatives she fuel tanks—is in good mechanical condition with no inoperative does not see very often. Her family is very excited and has equipment. The instrument panel is a standard “six-pack.” made a number of plans for the visit. Figure 2-11. A real-world example of how the 3P model guides decisions on a cross-country trip using the PAVE checklist. 2-16