Aeronautical Decision-Making

Pilots can perceive hazards by using the CARE checklist: Pilot Aircraft • Consequences: Gayle’s inexperience and lack of recent • Consequences: This area presents low risk because the flight time create some risks for an accident, primarily because aircraft is in excellent mechanical condition and Gayle is she plans to travel over mountains on a hazy day and land familiar with its avionics. at an unfamiliar mountain airport that is still in IMC • Alternatives: Had there been a problem with her aircraft, conditions. Gayle might have considered renting another plane from her • Alternatives: Gayle might mitigate the pilot-related risk by flight school. Bear in mind, however, that alternatives hiring a CFI to accompany her and provide dual cross- sometimes create new hazards. In this instance, there may country instruction. An added benefit is the opportunity to be hazards associated with flying an unfamiliar aircraft with broaden her flying experience in safe conditions. different avionics. • Reality: Accepting the reality that limited experience can • Reality: It is important to recognize the reality of an aircraft’s create additional risks is a key part of sound risk management mechanical condition. If you find a maintenance discrepancy and mitigation. and then find yourself saying that it is “probably” okay to fly • External Factors: Like many pilots, Gayle must contend with with it anyway, you need to revisit the consequences part of the emotional pressure associated with acknowledging that this checklist. her skill and experience levels may be lower than she would • External Factors: Pilot decision-making can sometimes be like them to be. Pride can be a powerful external factor! influenced by the external pressure of needing to return the airplane to the FBO by a certain date and time. Because Gayle owns the airplane, there was no such pressure in this Environment case. • Consequences: For a pilot whose experience consists mostly of local flights in good VMC, launching a long cross- country flight over mountainous terrain in hazy conditions External pressures could lead to pilot disorientation and increase the risk of an • Consequences: Any number of factors can create the risk of accident. emotional pressure from a “get-there” mentality. In Gayle’s • Alternatives: Options include postponing the trip until the case, the consequences of her strong desire to visit family, visibility improves, or modifying the route to avoid extended her family’s expectations, and personal pride could induce periods of time over the mountains. her to accept unnecessary risks. • Reality: Hazy conditions and mountainous terrain clearly • Alternatives: Gayle clearly needs to develop a mitigating create risks for an inexperienced VFR-only pilot. strategy for each of the external factors associated with this • External Factors: Few pilots are immune to the pressure of trip. “get-there-itis,” which can sometimes induce a decision to • Reality: Pilots sometimes tend to discount or ignore the launch or continue in less than ideal weather conditions. potential impact of these external factors. Gayle’s open acknowledgement of these factors (e.g., “I might be pressured into pressing on so my mother won’t have to worry about our late arrival.”) is a critical element of effective risk management. • External Factors: (see above) Figure 2-12. A real-world examples of how the 3P model guides decisions on a cross-country trip using the CARE checklist. and carrying sufficient fuel to reach it. This course of action • Using personal minimums checklist to make some would mitigate the risk. The pilot also has the option to decisions in advance of the flight. To develop a good eliminate it entirely by waiting for better weather. personal minimums checklist, you need to assess your abilities and capabilities in a non-flying environment, Once the pilot has completed the 3P decision process and when there is no pressure to make a specific trip. Once selected a course of action, the process begins anew because developed, a personal minimums checklist will give now the set of circumstances brought about by the course of you a clear and concise reference point for making action requires analysis. The decision-making process is a your go/no-go or continue/discontinue decisions. continuous loop of perceiving, processing, and performing. • In addition to having personal minimums, some pilots With practice and consistent use, running through the 3P also like to use a preflight risk assessment checklist to cycle can become a habit that is as smooth, continuous, and help with the ADM and risk management processes. automatic as a well-honed instrument scan. This basic set This kind of form assigns numbers to certain risks of practical risk management tools can be used to improve and situations, which can make it easier to see when risk management. a particular flight involves a higher level of risk • Develop a list of good alternatives during your Your mental willingness to follow through on safe decisions, processing phase. In marginal weather, for instance, especially those that require delay or diversion is critical. You you might mitigate the risk by identifying a reasonable can bulk up your mental muscles by: 2-17