Aeronautical Decision-Making

determine the best course of action. These processes involve arises. These decision points include preflight, pretakeoff, the identification of hazards, followed by assessments of the hourly or at the midpoint of the flight, pre-descent, and just risks, analysis of the controls, making control decisions, using prior to the final approach fix or for VFR operations, just the controls, and monitoring the results. prior to entering the traffic pattern. The steps leading to this decision constitute a decision- The 5 Ps are based on the idea that pilots have essentially making process. Three models of a structured framework five variables that impact his or her environment and forcing for problem-solving and decision-making are the 5P, the 3P him or her to make a single critical decision, or several less using PAVE, CARE and TEAM, and the DECIDE models. critical decisions, that when added together can create a They provide assistance in organizing the decision process. critical outcome. These variables are the Plan, the Plane, the All these models have been identified as helpful to the single Pilot, the Passengers, and the Programming. This concept pilot in organizing critical decisions. stems from the belief that current decision-making models tended to be reactionary in nature. A change has to occur Single-Pilot Resource Management (SRM) and be detected to drive a risk management decision by the Single-Pilot Resource Management (SRM) is about how to pilot. For instance, many pilots complete risk management gather information, analyze it, and make decisions. Learning sheets prior to takeoff. These form a catalog of risks how to identify problems, analyze the information, and make that may be encountered that day. Each of these risks is informed and timely decisions is not as straightforward as the assigned a numerical value. If the total of these numerical training involved in learning specific maneuvers. Learning values exceeds a predetermined level, the flight is altered or how to judge a situation and “how to think” in the endless cancelled. Informal research shows that while these are useful variety of situations encountered while flying out in the “real documents for teaching risk factors, they are almost never world” is more difficult. used outside of formal training programs. The 5P concept is an attempt to take the information contained in those sheets There is no one right answer in ADM, rather each pilot is and in the other available models and use it. expected to analyze each situation in light of experience level, personal minimums, and current physical and mental The 5P concept relies on the pilot to adopt a “scheduled” readiness level, and make his or her own decision. review of the critical variables at points in the flight where decisions are most likely to be effective. For instance, the The 5 Ps Check easiest point to cancel a flight due to bad weather is before the SRM sounds good on paper, but it requires a way for pilots pilot and passengers walk out the door and load the aircraft. to understand and use it in their daily flights. One practical So the first decision point is preflight in the flight planning application is called the “Five Ps (5 Ps).” [Figure 2-9] The room, where all the information is readily available to make 5 Ps consist of “the Plan, the Plane, the Pilot, the Passengers, a sound decision, and where communication and Fixed and the Programming.” Each of these areas consists of a set Base Operator (FBO) services are readily available to make of challenges and opportunities that every pilot encounters. alternate travel plans. Each challenge and opportunity can substantially increase or decrease the risk of successfully completing the flight based The second easiest point in the flight to make a critical safety on the pilot’s ability to make informed and timely decisions. decision is just prior to takeoff. Few pilots have ever had The 5 Ps are used to evaluate the pilot’s current situation at to make an “emergency takeoff.” While the point of the 5P key decision points during the flight or when an emergency check is to help the pilot fly, the correct application of the 5 P before takeoff is to assist in making a reasoned go/no-go decision based on all the information available. That decision The SRM Five “Ps” Check will usually be to “go,” with certain restrictions and changes, but may also be a “no-go.” The key idea is that these two points in the process of flying are critical go/no-go points on THE PLAN THE PLANE THE PILOT each and every flight. The third place to review the 5 Ps is at the midpoint of the THE THE flight. Often, pilots may wait until the Automated Terminal PASSENGERS PROGRAMMING information Service (ATIS) is in range to check weather, yet, at this point in the flight, many good options have already passed behind the aircraft and pilot. Additionally, fatigue Figure 2-9. The Five Ps checklist. 2-13